In my entire start-up and VC career in energy and sustainability, I don’t think I have ever seen such consensus around a single idea: ESG and impact tracking as a software. Yes, we are seeing some incredible firms and entrepreneurs out there. But…
…as Bill Gurley of Benchmark Capital says:
“Being ‘right’ doesn’t lead to superior performance if the consensus forecast is also right.”
According to that approach, to have outsized returns in VC you need to be correct AND have a non-consensus opinion. Net, within ESG I am looking to the fringes for the entrepreneurs and business model innovations that surprise. My guess is that the “winners” won’t look like we expect and that is because the best performers will combine technology and business model innovations to deliver an entirely new experience.