50% EV Targets… Mostly Meaningless

This morning President Biden and a number of US automakers announced a target of 50% EV market share for new car sales by 2030. The target is voluntary … and mostly meaningless. Why?

#1- Auto OEMs like Ford and GM were already spending towards that figure. GM has indicated a $30 billion budget for EV development. Ford followed suit with a $25 billion EV capex budget and is positioning their iconic F-150 and Mustang vehicles as EVs.

#2- These targets are (correctly) voluntary and OEMs still need to convince the public to purchase these cars. To help consumers make the gas to electric habit shift, these OEMs need to deliver on their platform promises with GREAT cars … but also must better enhance the EV network. That enhancement means providing greater certainty of charging networks and EV-specific services. Gaining mass market momentum is not just about the car, but about creating a travel ecosystem that consumers can trust. I believe all areas will require investment.

There is an article this morning from the Wall Street Journal on this target:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-to-set-electric-vehicle-sales-target-of-50-by-2030-11628154000?st=hugghglfmc6lpyg&reflink=article_copyURL_share

Perhaps the highlight of the article was the quote below, that just shows how hard it is to predict the future – and how much federal targets have changed in 15 years.

“A decade ago, we were talk­ing about reach­ing around 50 miles per gal­lon of gaso­line in 15 years,” the of­fi­cial said. “To­day for new au­tos, we are talk­ing about reach­ing around 50% of ve­hi­cles that don’t re­quire even one gal­lon of gaso­line to go a mile in less than a decade. This is a par­adigm shift.”