All Energy Transition Projections are Wrong

Energy analysts are bad at predicting system-wide changes. Every year the Department of Energy and other agencies vastly underestimate the new energy resources being energized across the country.

The same incorrect predictions are now also occurring around electric vehicles. The graphs below on EV adoption projections shows how key industry research groups are now also incorrectly predicting EV adoption. Each of these groups have to keep re-upping estimates every subsequent year.

The main entities that predict these levels include: OPEC, EIA, and BNEF. Of course, some of the oil & gas projections should be taken with a grain of salt as they are scared about this transition! Knowing that, as seen below, there is a big difference between the estimates of these groups!

Big, growing markets with a range of projected outcomes allow for contrarian operators and investors to create large businesses with great returns. Energize is energized about this opportunity.