The Next Bullseye

About a decade ago scientists, entrepreneurs, government and capitalists unified to focus on decarbonizing energy generation. As a result, the cost curve for new power solutions plummeted.

As Michael Polsky says “nobody built renewables because they needed electricity”… the fact is that the cumulative we had to come together for the long term benefit of our environment and drive efficiencies and growth in a new technology. The cost to deliver utility scale wind, solar and batteries is now dropping 5-10% each year. The focus and execution of the “we” won.

The same group of technology actors, policymakers and financiers is now focusing on the next sector: the decarbonization of mobility. Earlier this month Credit Suisse posted a report called “Energy Transition in 2021”

The most interesting page for me in the report is where the capital for the 2021-2022 “green stimulus” in Europe/US is focused:

“Electrification of EVs” “Electrification Charging Inrastructure” “Multi-modal transport support”… all about decarbonizing ground-based transportation

This capital towards EVs now far outpaces energy generation and industrial / building energy efficiency. Given our previous success effecting change in energy generation through focused innovation and investment in the 2010s, I am very bullish on significant changes ahead in our mobility sector. Whatever the “LCOE” equivalent for mobility… the cost of the decarbonized mobility solutions will plummet. Change creates opportunity and as electrification and hydrogen grow in usage, a number of new businesses and business models will emerge. New titans are being built now.

The scale of change ahead will make our current mobility market unrecognizable by 2030. Here we go!